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Is the Recession Over?

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By Neetal Parekh on October 13, 2009 6:50 AM

The various sectors of the economy are clamoring to find out... is the worst behind us?  And small business is no exception.  Having been particularly affected by the economic downturn-- which limited financing opportunities and forced entrepreneurs to make difficult decisions regarding hiring, firing, and closing-- U.S. small business has been looking to economic forecasts to determine whether to get ready for more rain or whether it's okay to put the umbrella away. 

According to over 80% of professional forecasters from the National Association of Business Economists (NABE), the most severe recession in over 70 years is over. 

But before you break out the bubbly and start a small business standing wave, you should know that though the recession was not as deep and as long as it could have been, analysts anticipate that its recovery will also not be as fast and dramatic as Main Street might hope. Output for all of 2009 is thought to contract 2.5% and then rebound the following year by 2.6%.

And businesses are pegged to lead the road to recovery by infusing their depleted inventories with new stock, spurring manufacturing, shipping, and trade.

For small businesses engaged in international commerce, analysts predict that the mighty U.S. dollar will take a further hit in 2009 and 2010 but will begin showing improvement thereafter. 

Unemployment is also slated to continue its upward trend with a project maxing-out around 10% with recovery taking two or more years.  For small businesses in a position to hire, talented candidates will be plentiful.

If the pundits are to be trusted, the post-Great Depression may be over.  And after spending the past two years weathering the storm, the task of rebuilding may not be easy but it has the potential to be aptly rewarding.  


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